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| What Causes the Failure of Emergency Decision Making? Configuration Analysis in the Intelligence View |
| Sun Qinying1, Ma Haiqun2 |
1.Postdoctoral Research Station of Chinese Language and Literature, Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150080
2.Research Center of Information Resources Management, Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150080 |
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Abstract The paradigm of emergency decision making has been upgraded from passive emergency response to active preventive preparation, which focuses on failure traceability and prevention now. Emergency decision-making failure is influenced by multiple concurrent factors. Mining the influencing factors of such failure from the perspective of intelligence is conducive not only to grasping the complex relationship between emergency intelligence and decision in theory, but also to understanding the decision-making subjects’ thinking and behavior, which has practical guiding value for improving the efficiency of emergency decisions. Based on Simon’s three-stage model of management decision making, this study adopts the qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) method to extract seven explanatory variables from aspects of intelligence collection, decision design, and program selection. This study analyzes the configuration of 44 emergency cases in China, and further explores the failure path leading to the emergency decision. The results indicate the following. From the single conditional variable analysis, government emergency decision-making failure is significantly affected by incomplete intelligence integration and insufficient cross-department coordination. From the analysis of conditional configuration, the path of government emergency decision failure can be divided into three modes: decision deviation and fault, lag avoidance, and utility failure. This study presents countermeasures to prevent the failure of emergency decision making from constructing the emergency intelligence perception mechanism of three-dimensional space, online and offline dual path triggering mechanism of technology enablement, auxiliary decision-making mechanism of multi-party cooperation, and assessment and accountability mechanism of multi-ability improvement. Furthermore, it provides a reference for the government to solve the dilemma of the failure of emergency decision making and improves the efficiency of decision making, which has important theoretical and practical significance in revealing the differentiated path of the failure of such decision making.
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Received: 17 February 2023
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