企业破产预测系统模型构建及实现研究

doi:10.3772/j.issn.1000-0135.2019.10.006

情报学报

2019, Vol. 38

Issue (10): 1051-1065 DOI: 10.3772/j.issn.1000-0135.2019.10.006

情报分析方法与技术

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企业破产预测系统模型构建及实现研究

唐晓波^1,2, 谭明亮¹, 李诗轩¹, 郑杜¹

1.武汉大学信息管理学院，武汉 430072
2.武汉大学信息系统研究中心，武汉 430072

Research on Construction and Implementation of a Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction System Model

Tang Xiaobo^1,2, Tan Mingliang¹, Li Shixuan¹, Zheng Du¹

1.School of Information Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072
2.Center for Studies of Information System of Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072

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摘要作为经济金融与管理科学领域最为重要的研究课题之一，企业破产预测在投资风险预警与金融决策支持中扮演着十分重要的角色。本文从知识工程的研究视角出发，构建了企业破产预测系统模型；系统通过从领域专家处和相关文献中获取领域知识来构建领域本体，并利用情感分析和知识发现技术从定量和定性信息中挖掘出可解释的破产预测规则知识，从而实现企业破产预测本体知识库的半自动构建；系统利用推理引擎对本体知识库进行知识推理来实现对企业的破产预测，并对预测的结果进行解释。本文使用过去十年间美国破产的上市公司数据对构建的系统模型进行了验证，并实现了一个企业破产预测原型系统；该系统不仅能够提高破产预测的准确率，同时也使投资者、债权人和政府监管机构等企业利益相关者能够更加便捷有效地进行企业破产预测，从而辅助其做出合理的决策。

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	唐晓波
	谭明亮
	李诗轩
	郑杜

关键词 ：企业破产预测, 知识工程, 本体知识库, 知识发现, 知识推理

收稿日期: 2018-11-08

基金资助:国家自然科学基金项目“基于文本和Web语义分析的智能咨询服务研究”（71673209）。

作者简介: 唐晓波，男，1962年生，教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为知识组织与情报研究

引用本文:

唐晓波, 谭明亮, 李诗轩, 郑杜. 企业破产预测系统模型构建及实现研究[J]. 情报学报, 2019, 38(10): 1051-1065.
Tang Xiaobo, Tan Mingliang, Li Shixuan, Zheng Du. Research on Construction and Implementation of a Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction System Model. 情报学报, 2019, 38(10): 1051-1065.

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https://qbxb.istic.ac.cn/CN/10.3772/j.issn.1000-0135.2019.10.006 或 https://qbxb.istic.ac.cn/CN/Y2019/V38/I10/1051

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