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| Transformative Research Foresight: Theoretical Model and Multi-dimensional Citation Characteristics |
| Liang Guoqiang1, Bu Yi2, Hu Zhigang3, Hou Haiyan3 |
1.School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124
2.Department of Information Management, Peking University, Beijing 100871
3.WISE_Lab, Institute of Science of Science and Management of S&T, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 |
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Abstract Transformative research (TR), a major breakthrough in fundamental research, radically transforms our current scientific understanding and propels scientific research toward a new frontier. This study introduces a theoretical model and multi-dimensional citation characteristics of TR based on the cited-citing relationship between scientific studies. Additionally, this study explores the early characteristics of TR by using Nobel Prize-winning papers as a proxy. The results show that TR’s true nature is a potential new paradigm, as presented in Kuhn’s theory of scientific revolution; specifically, TR occurs in the beginning of a period of scientific revolution. As for the broadness of TR, the convergence of its disciplinary and early diffusion characteristics are apparent. Regarding the intensity dimension, the knowledge absorption and early disruption characteristics of TR are apparent. When considering the speed dimension, the obsolescent characteristics—as well as the early growth characteristics after its publication—are apparent. This research provides a theoretical and multi-dimensional citation framework for the quantitative analysis of TR at its early stage, which is a step toward TR forecasting.
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Received: 09 December 2021
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