|
|
|
| Research on Theory Model and Running of the Decision-driven Intelligence Process |
| Li Pin1,2, Xu Linyu1,2, Yang Jianlin1,2 |
1. School of Information Management, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023;
2. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Data Engineering & Knowledge Service, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023 |
|
|
|
|
Abstract Supporting decision-making is an important function of intelligence studies, and scientific and reasonable intelligence process is required as a guarantee for realizing this function. In order to ensure that intelligence work can produce high-quality intelligence products, and can be accepted by decision makers, and can affect the decision-making process of decision makers, this paper proposes a decision-driven intelligence process model. The model emphasizes the decision-making needs in the context of subjective and objective interweaving, the follow-up of intelligence activities in their changes and the feedback of multiple and repeated cycles, realizes the deep-seated dialogue between decision makers and information work, advocates the free flow of resources, and emphasizes the formation of networks between intelligence collectors and analysts so as to ensure the sufficiency of decision makers and intelligence workers. The interaction will drive the continuous operation of the intelligence process. The model provides an action guide for intelligence work supporting decision-making, provides a basis for intelligence management oriented to intelligence practice, provides guidance for training comprehensive practical ability of intelligence talents, and provides a new growth point for theoretical innovation oriented to interdisciplinary science.
|
|
Received: 18 October 2018
|
|
|
|
[1] 彭知辉. 情报流程研究: 述评与反思[J]. 情报学报, 2016, 35(10): 1110-1120.
[2] 孙琳, 邵波. 企业技术竞争情报流程分析[J]. 情报杂志, 2008(5): 101-104.
[3] 彭知辉. 论大数据环境下公安情报流程的优化[J]. 情报杂志, 2016, 35(4): 15-20.
[4] 姜峰, 谢川豫. 基于控制论的公安情报流程优化研究[J/OL]. 图书馆杂志（网络预发表）. [2018-10-02].http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/31.1108.G2.20180912.0747.004.html.
[5] 高金虎. 军事情报学[M]. 南京: 江苏人民出版社, 2016: 58-59.
[6] 张晓军. 美国军事情报理论研究[M]. 北京: 军事科学出版社, 2007: 74-75.
[7] Stokes R L. Employing the intelligence cycle process model within the homeland security enterprise[D]. Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 2013.
[8] 吴素彬, 陈云, 王科选, 等. 美国“以目标为中心”的情报分析流程研究[J]. 情报杂志, 2013, 32(4): 6-9, 21.
[9] 张晓军. 美国军事情报理论研究[M]. 北京: 军事科学出版社, 2007: 70.
[10] Kahane L. Competitive intelligence: From black ops to boardrooms-how business gather, analyze, and use information to succeed in the global marketplace[M]. New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996: 91-92.
[11] Herring J P. Buiding a business intelligence system[J]. Journal of Business Strategy, 1988, 9(3): 4-9.
[12] Simmer R. Using intellectual property data for competitive intelligence[M]. Philadelphia: Licensing Executive Society USA & Canada Inc, 2001: 1-2.
[13] 谢尔曼·肯特. 战略情报: 为美国世界政策服务[M]. 刘微,肖皓元, 译. 北京: 金城出版社, 2015: 123, 130-147.
[14] Lowenthal M M. .情报: 从秘密到政策[M]. 杜效坤, 译. 北京: 金城出版社, 2014: 91.
[15] McGlynn P, Garner G. Intelligence analysis fundamentals[M]. Taylor & Francis Group, 2018: 13.
[16] 张晓军. 美国军事情报理论研究[M]. 北京: 军事科学出版社, 2007: 49, 71.
[17] Wirtz J J. The tet offensive: Intelligence failure in war[M]. Cornell University Press, 1991: 4
[18] Gentry J A. Lost promise: How CIA analysis misserves the nation[M]. Lanhan, Maryland: University Press of America, 1993: 222.
[19] Brouard F. Business intelligence for Canadian corporations after September 11[J]. Journal of Competitive Intelligence and Management, 2004, 2(1): 1-15.
[20] Clark R M. Intelligence analysis: A target-centric approach[M]. Washington DC: Congressional Quarterly Press, 2012: 16.
[21] 刘强. 战略预警下的战略情报工作: 边缘理论与历史实践的解析[M]. 北京: 时事出版社, 2014: 240-241.
[22] 雷润玲. 成功决策中的情报保障[J]. 现代情报, 1993(1): 38-39.
[23] 杨晓宁, 刘杰. 论作为决策支持的情报分析——建议采纳的视角[J]. 情报杂志, 2017, 36(9): 19-23.
[24] 郑彦宁, 赵筱媛, 陈峰. 我国科技情报机构政府决策服务的最佳实践特征研究[J]. 情报学报, 2012, 31(1): 4-8.
[25] Simon H A. Administrative behavior: A study of decision making processes in administrative organization[M]. New York: Macmillan Publishing Co, lnc, 1971: 146.
[26] 梁战平. 中国科技情报分析为规划和决策服务的现状[J]. 科学, 1993(1): 35-38.
[27] 缪其浩.探索者言: 缪其浩情报著作自选集[M]. 上海: 上海科学技术文献出版社, 2008: 46.
[28] 吴晨生, 张惠娜, 刘如, 等. 追本溯源: 情报3.0时代对情报定义的思考[J]. 情报学报, 2017, 36(1): 1-4.
[29] Mangio C A, Wilinson B J. Intelligence analysis: Once Again[EB/OL]. [2018-08-28].https://www.education.psu.edu/drupal6/files/sgam/Intel_Once_Again. pdf.
[30] Patterson E S, Roth E M, Woods D D. Predicting vulnerabilities in computer supported inferential analysis under data overload[J]. Cognition, Technology & Work, 2001, 3(4): 224-237.
[31] 缪其浩. 国家的经济技术情报: 中国和法国的实践和比较[M]. 上海: 上海人民出版社, 2011: 6.
[32] 徐峰, 张旭. 面向决策的情报研究与服务探析[J]. 情报学报, 2012, 31(11): 1124-1130.
[33] Clark R M. Intelligence analysis: A target-centric approach[M]. Washington DC: Congressional Quarterly Press, 2012: 30.
[34] 梁战平. 情报学和情报工作的历史性贡献[J]. 情报理论与实践, 2004(4): 341-342.
[35] Walton T. Challenges in intelligence analysis: Lessons from 1300 BC to the present[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010: 88.
[36] 沈固朝. 两种情报观: Information还是Intelligence?——在情报学和情报工作中引入Intelligence的思考[J]. 情报学报, 2005, 24(3): 259-267.
[37] 池建文. 论情报的两个基本问题[J]. 情报学报, 2006, 25(S1): 290-293.
[38] 钮先钟. 战略研究[M]. 桂林: 广西师范大学出版社, 2003: 305.
[39] 郑彦宁, 赵筱媛, 陈峰. 我国科技情报机构政府决策服务的最佳实践特征研究[J]. 情报学报, 2012, 31(1): 4-8.
[40] 宫宏光, 许儒红. 开展决策情报服务理论研究的思考[J]. 情报理论与实践, 2011, 34(2): 1-4.
[41] 高金虎. 美国战略情报与决策体制研究[M]. 西安: 陕西师范大学出版社, 2004: 207-211.
[42] Heuer Jr R J, Psychology of intelligence analysis[M]. Washington DC: US Government Printing Office, 1999: 31.
[43] 高金虎. 试论信息时代的情报分析理论创新[J]. 情报杂志, 2018, 37(7): 1-6.
[44] Lowenthal M M. Intelligence: From secrets to policy[M]. Washington D C: Congressional Quarterly Press, 2012: 69.
[45] 曾忠禄. 企业竞争情报模型[M]. 广州: 暨南大学出版社, 2004.
[46] Lowenthal M M. 情报: 从秘密到政策[M]. 杜效坤, 译. 北京: 金城出版社, 2014: 90-91.
[47] Simon H A. Modes of man: Social and rational[M]. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1957.
[48] Rogers P. The cognitive psychology of lottery gambling: A theoretical review[J]. Journal of Gambling Studies, 1998, 14(2): 111.
[49] Gilovich T. Seeing the past in the present: the effect of associations to familiar events on judgments and decisions[J]. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1981, 40(5): 797-808.
[50] Jain S. Environment scanning in US[J]. Long Range Planning, 1984, 17(2): 117-128.
[51] 曾忠禄. 21世纪商业情报分析——理论、方法与案例[M]. 北京: 中国经济出版社, 2018: 223.
[52] US Army. lntelligence analysis[EB/OL]. [2018-9-29]. https://info.publicintelligence.net/USArmy-IntelAnalysis.pdf.
[53] 赵柯然, 王延飞. 情报感知的方法探析[J]. 情报理论与实践, 2018, 41(8): 11-16.
[54] Barclay S, Randall L S. Interactive decision analysis aids for intelligenceanalysts[EB/OL]. [2019-01-20]. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235013003_Interactive_Decision_Analysis_ Aids_for_Intelligence_Analysts.
[55] 化柏林, 武夷山. 卷首语[J]. 情报学报, 2012, 31(1).
[56] 乔迪. 兰德决策[M]. 成都: 天地出版社, 1998: 308-309.
[57] 西蒙. 管理决策新科学[M]. 李柱流, 汤俊澄, 译. 北京: 中国社会科学出版社, 1982: 34.
[58] 王延飞, 陈美华, 赵柯然, 等. 国家科技情报治理的研究解析[J]. 情报学报, 2018, 37(8): 753-759.
[59] 苏新宁. 大数据时代情报学学科崛起之思考[J]. 情报学报, 2018, 37(5): 451-459.
[60] 马费成, 张瑞, 李志元. 大数据对情报学研究的影响[J]. 图书情报知识, 2018(5): 4-9.
[61] 高庆德. 非战争军事行动情报支援[M]. 北京: 国防工业出版社, 2014: 58. |
|
|
|
