基于<bold>ELO</bold>模型的技术主题热度评估框架研究

doi:10.3772/j.issn.1000-0135.2025.06.004

情报学报

2025, Vol. 44

Issue (6): 688-701 DOI: 10.3772/j.issn.1000-0135.2025.06.004

情报理论与方法

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基于ELO模型的技术主题热度评估框架研究

陈洪侃, 刘金昌, 步一

北京大学信息管理系，北京 100871

Toward a Technical Topic Popularity Evaluation Framework Based on the ELO Model

Chen Hongkan, Liu Jinchang, Bu Yi

Department of Information Management, Peking University, Beijing 100871

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摘要技术主题热度的评估对决策者了解市场动向和技术发展趋势具有重要意义。然而，传统的热点评估指标或早期技术的弱信号识别方法尚存在热点技术主题识别欠缺前瞻视角、时间间隔阈值调整主观且较困难、学科框架以及粒度需要预先确定、输出结果不易直接辅助情报工作决策等问题。为此，本文引入了基于ELO（Elo rating system）模型的期望热度概念，构建了一种新的技术主题热度评估方法。本文从理论上阐释了基于ELO模型的方法能够较为准确地反映技术主题的热度指标，并以碳纤维领域的技术主题热度识别为例，验证了本文方法的可行性与有效性。相比于传统的热度评估方法，本文提出的技术主题热度评估方法丰富了主题热度的评估内容，并为决策者提供了更多的情报支持。

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	陈洪侃
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关键词 ：技术主题识别, ELO模型, 信号识别, 主题热度识别, 弱信号识别

收稿日期: 2024-11-06

基金资助:国家自然科学基金项目“知识单元视角下基于超图表示学习的原创性科技成果识别研究”（72474009）；国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“基于因果推断的高学术影响力跨学科团队早期识别研究”（72104007）。

作者简介: 陈洪侃，男，2001年生，硕士研究生，主要研究领域为科学学、文献计量学、复杂网络；刘金昌，男，2004年生，本科生，主要研究领域为文献计量学；步一，通信作者，男，1994年生，博士，助理教授，研究员，博士生导师，主要研究领域为信息计量、科学评价、复杂网络、大数据应用，E-mail：buyi@pku.edu.cn；

引用本文:

陈洪侃, 刘金昌, 步一. 基于ELO模型的技术主题热度评估框架研究[J]. 情报学报, 2025, 44(6): 688-701.
Chen Hongkan, Liu Jinchang, Bu Yi. Toward a Technical Topic Popularity Evaluation Framework Based on the ELO Model. 情报学报, 2025, 44(6): 688-701.

链接本文:

https://qbxb.istic.ac.cn/CN/10.3772/j.issn.1000-0135.2025.06.004 或 https://qbxb.istic.ac.cn/CN/Y2025/V44/I6/688

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