基于应用基础研究的新兴技术方向成熟度评估方法研究

doi:10.3772/j.issn.1000-0135.2025.06.002

情报学报

2025, Vol. 44

Issue (6): 660-674 DOI: 10.3772/j.issn.1000-0135.2025.06.002

情报理论与方法

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基于应用基础研究的新兴技术方向成熟度评估方法研究

王春^1,2,3,4, 冷伏海¹

1.中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院，北京 100190
2.中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院，北京 100049
3.中国科学院文献情报中心，北京 100190
4.中国科学院大学经济与管理学院，北京 100190

Research Technology Readiness Assessment Methods for Emerging Technology Directions Based on Applied Basic Research

Wang Chun^1,2,3,4, Leng Fuhai¹

1.Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190
2.School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
3.National Science Library, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190
4.School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190

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摘要本文对基于应用基础研究的新兴技术方向成熟度客观可重复性评估开展情报分析方法研究，以期改进技术成熟度长期由专家评估、难以复制的现状，并解决因技术成熟度等级（technology readiness level，TRL）量表评级标准模糊而容易造成的评估不准确的问题。首先，本文分析了TRL量表的调整与应用现状，对技术成熟度的专家评估与情报指标评估的差异进行剖析。其次，针对学界鼓励调整和应用TRL量表以加强行业讨论的现状，对与新兴技术方向成熟度评估相关的研究类型、文献数据类型、情报指标来源数据库以及所涉及的TRL范围进行详细探讨。最后，结合多个行业和机构的TRL相关描述与应用，本文提出了将基于应用基础研究的新兴技术方向成熟度等级调整为三个阶段的假设，据此构建了“研究主题+时序演化”的情报分析框架。在此框架下，从标题信息时序聚类、摘要信息主题建模与主要研究主题判断以及语义主路径分析三个角度，开展结果一致性检验，并与专家咨询相印证，完成情报分析方法的可行性论证。在实证部分，本文以Web of Science Core Collection数据库1997年以来的磷酸铁锂电池技术方向11833篇论文为例，证实了该方向的研究已经处于新兴技术方向成熟度发展的第三阶段。新兴技术方向成熟度客观可重复性评估的情报分析方法研究是现有评估方法的有益补充，对把握技术发展脉络、科技战略资源配置、未来产业技术路线图制定以及技术创新产业发展等具有积极意义。

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关键词 ：新兴技术方向, 技术成熟度评估, 客观可重复性评估, 磷酸铁锂电池技术方向

收稿日期: 2024-10-28

作者简介: 王春，女，1976年生，博士研究生，副研究员，主要研究领域为情报研究理论与方法；冷伏海，通信作者，男，1963年生，博士，研究员，博士生导师，主要研究领域为情报研究理论与方法，E-mail：lengfuhai@casipm.ac.cn；

引用本文:

王春, 冷伏海. 基于应用基础研究的新兴技术方向成熟度评估方法研究[J]. 情报学报, 2025, 44(6): 660-674.
Wang Chun, Leng Fuhai. Research Technology Readiness Assessment Methods for Emerging Technology Directions Based on Applied Basic Research. 情报学报, 2025, 44(6): 660-674.

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https://qbxb.istic.ac.cn/CN/10.3772/j.issn.1000-0135.2025.06.002 或 https://qbxb.istic.ac.cn/CN/Y2025/V44/I6/660

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