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| Research on the Identification of Emerging Technologies Integrating Multidimensional Perspectives |
| Li Guojun1,2, Xie Fei3, Tang Xinglong2, Wang Bingqi2,4, Xu Yang2 |
1.Peking University Library, Beijing 100871
2.Department of Information Management, Peking University, Beijing 100871
3.Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development, Beijing 100038
4.Institute of Scientific and Technical Information, Beijing Academy of Science and Technology, Beijing 100089 |
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Abstract Emerging technologies are characterized by high degrees of innovativeness, uncertainty, and impact. They serve as the foundation of scientific innovation and a driving force for development. They are also critical elements of national competitiveness and security. Effectively identifying and monitoring these emerging technologies are significant challenges in science, technology management, and policymaking. Considering the complexity and diversity of emerging technologies, no unified or widely accepted definition has been identified. In this study, we review the definitions and characteristics of emerging technologies from three perspectives—scientometrics, complex networks, and evolutionary theory—along with the key indicators associated with each. Following this review, we propose a multidimensional framework for the selection of emerging technologies, integrating indicators from different perspectives into a comprehensive structure for identifying such technologies. Finally, using scientific papers from the OpenAlex dataset as the data source, we screen all computer science papers published between 2013 and 2022. By employing bibliometric clustering and citation analysis, we calculate and analyze multidimensional indicators to extract key terms and technologies. We validate and refine these results to produce a list of candidate emerging technologies, providing a reference for monitoring and predicting emerging technologies.
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Received: 30 December 2024
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