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| Review of Research Progress on Emerging Technologies Identification Based on Quantitative and Evolutionary Perspectives |
| Lu Xiaobin1, Yang Guancan1, Xu Shuo2, Zhang Yangyi1 |
1.School of Information Resource Management, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872
2.College of Economic and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124 |
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Abstract Emerging technologies identification has always been the focus of scientific and technological innovation management, scientific and technological policy-making, and technologically competitive intelligence research. Although significant academic research has been performed in this field, the conceptual definition of “emerging technology” has seriously restricted its development, which is attributed to expanding the conceptual boundary of emerging technologies from two different cognitive perspectives: quantitative and evolutionary. Therefore, the basis for clarifying the concept of emerging technologies identification is to first understand the characteristics and application scenarios of the two perspectives. In this paper, first, a framework consisting of three parts is proposed: characteristics, data representations and methods of emerging technologies identification. This framework can comprehensively cover the practical progress of emerging technologies identification from the current quantitative perspective. Subsequently, through literature comparison, it was found that the rationality of the evolutionary perspective lies in the fact that the proposed framework cannot explain the following four issues: radical innovation based on technological recombination, fusion effect of disciplines and technological networks, driving effect by technological practicability and efficiency, and disruptive innovation, which promote the transformation of data representation and recognition methods from the evolutionary perspective. Finally, preliminary research prospects of the development of data representation and recognition methods of emerging technologies identification are described. The research will provide references for the further development of emerging technologies identification activities, by comparing its understanding and practice from two different perspectives.
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Received: 21 October 2019
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