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| Evaluation Framework and Index System for Technological Capability Gaps Oriented to Sci-Tech Security |
| Yuan Lin, Zhao Xiaoyuan, Zhang Guilan |
| Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China, Beijing 100038 |
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Abstract Against the backdrop of intensifying global sci-tech competition, accurately identifying the shortcomings in the technological capabilities of a country has become crucial for safeguarding sci-tech security. Existing evaluation models typically focus on macro-level factors and cannot fully cover the entire process of converting technology into productive forces. A theoretical analysis framework was constructed based on the innovation chain and disruptive innovation theory to explore the differences in technological capabilities between China and other countries in key fields. This framework included four links—basic research, applied research, trial maturation, and market diffusion—and two dimensions—original innovation and sustained competition. On this basis, the grounded theory was used to refine the risk early warning logic for gap evaluation and cause analysis, and a core index system was systematically selected from multi-source data. Using artificial intelligence as an example for empirical verification, the system accurately identified the structural characteristics of China’s AI sector, namely, strong sustained competitiveness yet weak original innovation. The technological capability gap evaluation system oriented to sci-tech security has advantages such as result orientation and risk early warning. It can map sci-tech security risks in key fields to specific links in technological development and dimensional shortcomings, providing decision-making references for the country to optimize the layout of sci-tech strategies and prevent security risks.
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Received: 19 September 2025
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