Abstract Bringing together the wisdom of experts and the public, i.e., implicit knowledge, for potential disruptive technology assessment is the trend in disruptive technology prediction. Generally, the accuracy of experts' predictions of disruptive technology is high, but there is also a risk of inaccurate or omitted predictions due to experts' cognitive bias and thinking set. Public participation in prediction helps to increase the diversity and novelty of disruptive prediction technology, and also helps to strengthen the comprehensiveness of prediction results. To gather the wisdom of experts and the public for predicting potential disruptive technologies, this paper studies the improvement of the method and mechanism of the prediction market for disruptive technology prediction, introduces the design and R&D results of the potential disruptive technology evaluation support system that gathers the wisdom of experts and the public, and puts forward suggestions for future work.
Liu Zhihui,Zhang Junsheng,Lin Yi, et al. Potential Disruptive Technology Assessment Method Based on Implicit Knowledge[J]. 情报学报, 2021, 40(12): 1271-1278.
1 Bower J L, Christensen C M. Disruptive technologies: catching the wave[J]. Harvard Business Review, 1995, 73(1): 43-53. 2 Christensen C M. The innovator's dilemma: when new technologies cause great firms to fail[M]. Boston: Harvard Business Review Press, 1997: 1-179. 3 Schumpeter J A. Capitalism, socialism and democracy[M]. New York: Harper Perennial, 1962: 51-52. 4 “工程科技颠覆性技术战略研究”项目综合组. 工程科技颠覆性技术战略研究项目综述[J]. 中国工程科学, 2018, 20(6): 1-6. 5 Alan R S. Disruptive technology: an uncertain future[C]// Proceedings of the 6th Conference on Science and Engineering Technology, 2005. 6 魏俊峰, 赵超阳, 谢冰峰, 等. 跨越现实与未来的边界: DARPA美国国防高级研究计划局透视[M]. 北京: 国防工业出版社, 2015: 15-17. 7 孙永福, 王礼恒, 孙棕檀, 等. 引发产业变革的颠覆性技术内涵与遴选研究[J]. 中国工程科学, 2017, 19(5): 9-16. 8 刘安蓉, 李莉, 曹晓阳, 等. 颠覆性技术概念的战略内涵及政策启示[J]. 中国工程科学, 2018, 20(6): 7-13. 9 周洋, 张庆普. 高端颠覆性创新的技术演进轨迹和市场扩散路径[J]. 研究与发展管理, 2017, 29(6): 99-108. 10 黄鲁成, 成雨, 吴菲菲, 等. 关于颠覆性技术识别框架的探索[J]. 科学学研究, 2015, 33(5): 654-664. 11 苏敬勤, 刘建华, 王智琦, 等. 颠覆性技术的演化轨迹及早期识别——以智能手机等技术为例[J]. 科研管理, 2016, 37(3): 13-20. 12 王志勇, 党晓玲, 刘长利, 等. 颠覆性技术的基本特征与国外研究的主要做法[J]. 国防科技, 2015, 36(3): 14-17, 22. 13 王安, 孙棕檀, 沈艳波, 等. 国外颠覆性技术识别方法浅析[J]. 中国工程科学, 2017, 19(5): 79-84. 14 苏鹏, 苏成, 潘云涛. 颠覆性技术识别方法发展现状及启示[J]. 图书情报工作, 2019, 63(20): 129-138. 15 Momeni A, Rost K. Identification and monitoring of possible disruptive technologies by patent-development paths and topic modeling[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2016, 104: 16-29. 16 Ernstsen S K, Thuesen C, Larsen L R, et al. Identifying disruptive technologies: horizon scanning in the early stages of design[C]// Proceedings of the DESIGN 2018 15th International Design Conference, 2018: 1833-1844. 17 Raley C D, Gaertner P S. Methodologies for the identification and integration of emerging and disruptive technologies[C]// Proceedings of the 2014 9th International Conference on System of Systems Engineering. IEEE, 2014: 177-182. 18 Graefe A, Luckner S, Weinhardt C. Prediction markets for foresight[J]. Futures, 2010, 42(4): 394-404. 19 贺德方, 潘云涛. 基于准金融期货交易规则的预测市场机制研究——以基金申请量预测为例[J]. 情报学报, 2014, 33(9): 900-909. 20 李国秋, 龙怡. 预测市场应用于技术预见的优势分析——对13种常用技术预见方法的20个维度的实证研究[J]. 图书馆杂志, 2014, 33(8): 11-28. 21 李国秋, 吕斌. 预测市场: 理论基础、运行机制及其应用[J]. 图书情报工作, 2014, 58(1): 54-71. 22 Stoiciu A, Szabo E, Totev M, et al. Assessing the disruptiveness of new energy technologies—an ex-ante perspective[R]. Vienna: University of Economics and Business, 2014: 36-47. 23 Hang C C, Chen J, Yu D. An assessment framework for disruptive innovation[J]. Foresight, 2011, 13(5): 4-13.
