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| Toward a Technical Topic Popularity Evaluation Framework Based on the ELO Model |
| Chen Hongkan, Liu Jinchang, Bu Yi |
| Department of Information Management, Peking University, Beijing 100871 |
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Abstract Evaluating the popularity of technical topics is of great significance for decision-makers to understand market and technical development trends. However, extant indicators for evaluating popularity or recognizing weak signals still suffer from four serious issues: a lack of forward-looking perspectives, subjective and challenging adjustment of time interval thresholds, predetermined disciplinary frameworks and granularity, and difficulty in assisting intelligent decision-making with output results directly. To this end, this study introduces the concept of “expected popularity” based on the Elo rating system (ELO) model and constructs a new method for evaluating the popularity of technical topics. First, we theoretically discuss the feasibility of applying ELO methods to these tasks and take the recognition of the popularity of technical topics in the field of carbon fiber as an example to showcase its effectiveness. Compared to existing methods, the method proposed in this paper enriches the evaluation framework and provides decision-makers with more intelligence-level support.
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Received: 06 November 2024
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