|
|
|
| A Quantitative Evaluation of the US Science and Technology Competition Policy toward China |
| Zhao Yiming1,2,3, Sun Shaoju2,3,4, Zhang Jianian5 |
1.Center for Studies of Information Resources, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072
2.School of Information Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072
3.Big Data Institute, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072
4.National Demonstration Center for Experimental Library and Information Science Education, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072
5.Center of High Education Research, Huaibei Normal University, Huaibei 235000 |
|
|
|
|
Abstract Science and technology competition is a core area of the “game” between China and the US in this new era. Furthermore, science and technology policy is a bellwether of the government’s science and technology behavior. Therefore, this study explores the internal connections of the US science and technology competition policy toward China, which has become a normalcy according to the evaluation and analysis of relevant US policies undertaken, so asto help China take the initiative in the new round of this competition. Using the policy modeling consistency (PMC) index model, text mining, and policy sample analyses, we collected policy documents from sources such as the US President’s Project, US legislative information website, and various US government administrative department websites. Subsequently, we conducted word frequency analysis. Based on the results of this analysis, we constructed a PMC evaluation system for the US science and technology competition policy toward China. A stratified sampling method was employed to extract policy samples, followed by text mining and analyses to derive the PMC index for the samples. Finally, in conjunction with the PMC surface plot, we conducted an evaluative analysis of the policy samples, which clarified the Boyd cycle-like strategic operating system used in the US-China science and technology competition. This study provides strategic recommendations for China to address the new era of this competition, focusing on three aspects: awareness and early warning systems for technological competition dynamics, mechanisms of the rapid response to technological competition incidents, and the dynamic assessment system for technological competition situations.
|
|
Received: 20 July 2023
|
|
|
|
1 周琪. 高科技领域的竞争正改变大国战略竞争的主要模式[J]. 太平洋学报, 2021, 29(1): 1-20.
2 Kennedy A B, Lim D J. The innovation imperative: technology and US-China rivalry in the twenty-first century[J]. International Affairs, 2018, 94(3): 553-572.
3 李恒阳. 拜登政府对华科技竞争战略探析[J]. 美国研究, 2021, 35(5): 81-101, 6-7.
4 沈逸, 莫非. 拜登政府对华科技竞争战略[J]. 现代国际关系, 2022(9): 34-41, 58, 60.
5 Allison G, Klyman K, Barbesino K, et al. The great tech rivalry: China vs the U.S.[R]. Cambridge: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, 2021: 73.
6 黄钊龙. “内外兼修”: 拜登政府对华科技竞争[J]. 国际论坛, 2022, 24(6): 84-109, 159.
7 吴心伯. 塑造中美战略竞争的新常态[J]. 国际问题研究, 2022(2): 37-50, 154.
8 陈峰. 美国扩大出口管制实体清单对中国科技的影响和对策[J]. 情报杂志, 2022, 41(8): 1-7, 23.
9 Jeong H G. The U.S.-China battle for semiconductor supremacy and reshaping of global supply chain[J]. World Economy Brief, 2022, 12(44): 1-5.
10 王才玮, 李光. 美国对华5G科技竞争策略与对策研究——基于“大战略”理论视角[J]. 科技进步与对策, 2023, 40(4): 1-11.
11 Gonzales D, Brackup J, Pfeifer S, et al. Securing 5G: a way forward in the U.S. and China security competition[EB/OL]. (2022-04-29) [2023-03-20]. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA435-4.html.
12 程柏华, 龙坤, 秦中南. 美国政府封禁TikTok的策略探究[J]. 情报杂志, 2022, 41(8): 24-30, 52.
13 戴丽娜, 郑乐锋. 美国“清洁网络”计划评析[J]. 现代国际关系, 2021(1): 55-62.
14 黄海瑛, 刘妍. 中美科技竞争中的知识产权风险与规避——基于对华科技封锁政策分析[J]. 图书与情报, 2022(4): 37-50.
15 Gur N, Dilek S. US-China economic rivalry and the reshoring of global supply chains[J]. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 2023, 16(1): 61-83.
16 Lerner D, Laswell H D. The policy sciences: recent developments in scope and method[M]. Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1951.
17 Libecap G D. Economic variables and the development of the law: the case of western mineral rights[J]. The Journal of Economic History, 1978, 38(2): 338-362.
18 曹玲静, 张志强. 政策信息学的发展与前瞻[J]. 图书情报工作, 2021, 65(21): 38-50.
19 曹玲静, 张志强. 政策信息学视角下政策文本量化方法研究进展[J]. 图书与情报, 2022(6): 70-82.
20 郑新曼, 董瑜. 政策文本量化研究的综述与展望[J]. 现代情报, 2021, 41(2): 168-177.
21 刘金亚, 谌悦, 章成志, 等. 数据伦理政策的量化研究: 基于天文领域的数据管理办法[J]. 信息资源管理学报, 2021, 11(6): 63-75.
22 王旭, 李雨晴. 我国个人信息保护政策文本量化研究及启示——基于“工具-效力-主题”三维框架的探析[J]. 情报科学, 2023, 41(1): 126-133, 142.
23 陈美, 孙瑞乾. 政策工具视域下我国省级数字经济政策文本的量化分析——基于LDA的主题社会网络分析[J]. 情报杂志, 2023, 42(11): 174-182.
24 Ruiz Estrada M A. Policy modeling: Definition, classification and evaluation[J]. Journal of Policy Modeling, 2011, 33(4): 523-536.
25 Ruiz Estrada M A, Yap S F, Nagaraj S. Beyond the ceteris paribus assumption: modeling demand and supply assuming omnia mobilis[R]. FEA Working Paper No. 2007-16. Kuala Lumpur: University of Malaya, 2007.
26 La Fortune Nkoua Nkuika G, Xia Y Q. Quantitative evaluation and optimization path of advanced manufacturing development policy based on the PMC-AE index model[J]. International Journal of Global Business and Competitiveness, 2022, 17(Suppl 1): 1-11.
27 Yimsuk A, Thammaboosadee S. Evaluation of Thailand’s COVID-19-Related policies and their impact on the stock market using a PMC Index model approach1[J]. Cogent Social Sciences, 2024, 10(1): 2285252.
28 Kuang B, Han J, Lu X H, et al. Quantitative evaluation of China’s cultivated land protection policies based on the PMC-Index model[J]. Land Use Policy, 2020, 99: 105062.
29 Peng R, Chen Q K, Li X, et al. Evaluating the consistency of long-term care insurance policy using PMC index model[J]. DEStech Transactions on Computer Science and Engineering, 2020, 45: 34219.
30 张永安, 耿喆. 我国区域科技创新政策的量化评价——基于PMC指数模型[J]. 科技管理研究, 2015, 35(14): 26-31.
31 地丽格娜·地里夏提, 宋晓亭. 基于PMC指数模型的文化遗产保护与创新政策的量化评价[J]. 云南民族大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2023, 40(2): 52-63.
32 孙瑞英, 陈宜泓. 基于PMC指数模型的我国公共数据开放政策评价研究[J]. 情报理论与实践, 2023, 46(8): 33-42.
33 董纪昌, 袁铨, 尹利君, 等. 基于PMC指数模型的单项房地产政策量化评价研究——以我国“十三五”以来住房租赁政策为例[J]. 管理评论, 2020, 32(5): 3-13, 75.
34 The American Presidency Project[EB/OL]. [2023-03-20]. https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu.
35 National archives[EB/OL]. [2023-03-20]. https://www.archives.gov.
36 Current Legislative activities[EB/OL]. [2023-03-20]. https://www.congress.gov.
37 Estrada R, Arturo M. The policy modeling research consistency index (PMC-index)[J/OL]. SSRN Electronic Journal, 2010. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1689475.
38 史童, 杨水利, 王春嬉, 等. 科技成果转化政策的量化评价——基于PMC指数模型[J]. 科学管理研究, 2020, 38(4): 29-33.
39 张永安, 宋晨晨, 王燕妮. 对于我国房地产政策中单一项政策的量化评价研究——基于PMC指数模型[J]. 生产力研究, 2017(6): 1-7, 22.
40 杜荷花, 周环. 我国政府数据开放政策量化评价与优化——基于PMC指数模型的分析[J]. 图书馆建设, 2023(3): 70-81. 责任编辑 王克平） |
|
|
|
