|
|
|
| Searching for Weak Future Signals: A Review of Weak Signal Identification |
| Han Meng, Chen Yue, Wang Yuqi, Song Kai, Wang Kang |
| The Institute of Science of Science and S&T Management & WISE Lab, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116000 |
|
|
|
|
Abstract As an important prediction method that reduces uncertainty, weak signals identification is heipful for avoiding risk and grasping opportinity, and has been of interest to academics. This article aims to clarify the research status, determine the research focus, identify the research direction, and provide reference for relevant scientific researchers by summarizing the relevant research literature of weak signal recognition. First, the definition and development of weak signals and related concepts are determined. Second, relevant theories are summarized. Third, the research target and data source are analyzed. Additionally, the usability of the methods is clarified. Finally, the perspective direction focused on weak signal identification research is proposed. The literature review shows that weak signals and system identification theory lack universally accepted definitions, and although diversified methods have been used to identify weak signals from all types of data sources, the evaluation and test research remains insufficient.
|
|
Received: 30 October 2022
|
|
|
|
1 Reger G. Technology foresight in companies: from an indicator to a network and process perspective[J]. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 2001, 13(4): 533-553.
2 赵小康. 弱信号: 识别、探测与应对[J]. 情报杂志, 2010, 29(1): 159-163.
3 Ansoff H I. Managing strategic surprise by response to weak signals[J]. California Management Review, 1975, 18(2): 21-33.
4 Ansoff H I. Strategic issue management[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 1980, 1(2): 131-148.
5 Coffman B S. Weak signal research[EB/OL]. (1997-01-15) [2022-04-23]. https://legacy.mgtaylor.com/mgtaylor/jotm/winter97/wsrintro.htm.
6 Hiltunen E. The future sign and its three dimensions[J]. Futures, 2008, 40(3): 247-260.
7 Blanco S, Lesca H. Business intelligence: integrating knowledge into the selection of early warning signals[OL]. (1998-01-01) [2022-04-21]. http://www.veille-strategique.org/docs/1998-Blanco-Lesca-Articlewksp.pdf.
8 Uskali T. Paying attention to weak signals - the key concept for Innovation Journalism[J/OL]. Innovation Journalism, 2005, 2(11). (2005-08-30). http://journal.innovationjournalism.org/2005/08/paying-attention-to-weak-signals-key.html?m=0.
9 沈固朝. 信号分析: 竞争情报研究的又一重要课题[J]. 图书情报工作, 2009, 53(20): 11-14, 59.
10 Mendon?a S, Cardoso G, Cara?a J. The strategic strength of weak signal analysis[J]. Futures, 2012, 44(3): 218-228.
11 单彬. 认知视角下的弱信号分析及实证研究[D]. 北京: 中国人民解放军军事医学科学院, 2014.
12 Kim J, Lee C Y. Novelty-focused weak signal detection in futuristic data: assessing the rarity and paradigm unrelatedness of signals[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2017, 120: 59-76.
13 董尹, 刘千里, 宋继伟, 等. 弱信号研究综述: 概念、方法和工具[J]. 情报理论与实践, 2018, 41(10): 147-154.
14 Mendon?a S, Cunha M P, Kaivo-oja J, et al. Wild cards, weak signals and organisational improvisation[J]. Futures, 2004, 36(2): 201-218.
15 Schultz W L. Infinite futures: foresight training and facilitation[EB/OL]. (2002-04-01) [2022-04-21]. http://infinitefutures.com/essays/prez/holescan/sld005.htm.
16 Griol-Barres I, Milla S, Cebrián A, et al. Detecting weak signals of the future: a system implementation based on text mining and natural language processing[J]. Sustainability, 2020, 12(19): 7848.
17 Inayatullah S. Futures visions for South-east Asia: some early warning signals[J]. Futures, 1995, 27(6): 681-688.
18 Tu Y N, Seng J L. Indices of novelty for emerging topic detection[J]. Information Processing & Management, 2012, 48(2): 303-325.
19 Chen C M. CiteSpace II: detecting and visualizing emerging trends and transient patterns in scientific literature[J]. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 2006, 57(3): 359-377.
20 Weismayer C, Pezenka I. Identifying emerging research fields: a longitudinal latent semantic keyword analysis[J]. Scientometrics, 2017, 113(3): 1757-1785.
21 An L, Lin X, Yu C M, et al. Measuring and visualizing the contributions of Chinese and American LIS research institutions to emerging themes and salient themes[J]. Scientometrics, 2015, 105(3): 1605-1634.
22 卢超, 侯海燕, DingYing, 等. 国外新兴研究话题发现研究综述[J]. 情报学报, 2019, 38(1): 97-110.
23 Ansoff H I. Implanting strategic management[M]. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice Hall International, 1984.
24 托马斯·西比奥克, 马塞尔·德尼西. 意义的形式: 建模系统理论与符号学分析[M]. 余红兵, 译. 成都: 四川大学出版社, 2016.
25 Tabatabaei N. Detecting weak signals by internet-based environmental scanning[D]. Waterloo: University of Waterloo, 2011.
26 Lee Y J, Park J Y. Identification of future signal based on the quantitative and qualitative text mining: a case study on ethical issues in artificial intelligence[J]. Quality & Quantity, 2018, 52(2): 653-667.
27 Robinson C V, Ahmad F, Simmons J E L. Consolidation and fragmentation in environmental scanning: a review and research agenda[J]. Long Range Planning, 2021, 54(3): 101997.
28 Amanatidou E, Butter M, Carabias V, et al. On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues[J]. Science and Public Policy, 2012, 39(2): 208-221.
29 Decker R, Wagner R, Scholz S W. An internet-based approach to environmental scanning in marketing planning[J]. Marketing Intelligence & Planning, 2005, 23(2): 189-199.
30 术语在线. 适应性地形[EB/OL]. [2023-07-11]. https://www.termonline.cn/word/239117/1#s1.
31 Yoo S H, Won D. Simulation of weak signals of nanotechnology innovation in complex system[J]. Sustainability, 2018, 10(2): 486-499.
32 邓锦峰, 吴建华, 袁勤俭. 信息觅食理论的演化及其应用[J]. 情报理论与实践, 2021, 44(12): 65-72.
33 张玥, 赵恬. 基于意义建构理论的移动互联网深阅读素养培育策略研究[J]. 情报理论与实践, 2021, 44(7): 65-70, 85.
34 Yoon J. Detecting weak signals for long-term business opportunities using text mining of Web news[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2012, 39(16): 12543-12550.
35 Thorleuchter D, van den Poel D. Weak signal identification with semantic web mining[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2013, 40(12): 4978-4985.
36 Griol-Barres I, Milla S, Millet J. Improving strategic decision making by the detection of weak signals in heterogeneous documents by text mining techniques[J]. AI Communications, 2019, 32(5/6): 347-360.
37 Saritas O, Burmaoglu S. The evolution of the use of Foresight methods: a scientometric analysis of global FTA research output[J]. Scientometrics, 2015, 105(1): 497-508.
38 Hoisl K, Stelzer T, Biala S. Forecasting technological discontinuities in the ICT industry[J]. Research Policy, 2015, 44(2): 522-532.
39 Li M N, Porter A L. Facilitating the discovery of relevant studies on risk analysis for three-dimensional printing based on an integrated framework[J]. Scientometrics, 2018, 114(1): 277-300.
40 Villasalero M. Signaling, spillover and learning effects of knowledge flows on division performance within related diversified firms[J]. Journal of Knowledge Management, 2013, 17(6): 928-942.
41 Thorleuchter D, van den Poel D. Semantic compared cross impact analysis[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2014, 41(7): 3477-3483.
42 胡雅萍, 董尹. 基于信号分析的决策失误风险识别与应对[J]. 情报杂志, 2022, 41(4): 22-28.
43 Thorleuchter D, Scheja T, van den Poel D. Semantic weak signal tracing[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2014, 41(11): 5009-5016.
44 邓胜利, 林艳青, 王野. 企业竞争弱信号的特征提取与定量识别研究[J]. 图书情报工作, 2016, 60(10): 67-75.
45 Griol-Barres I, Milla S, Millet J. System implementation for the detection of weak signals of the future in heterogeneous documents by text mining and natural language processing techniques[C]// Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence. Setúbal: Science and Technology Publications, 2019: 631-638.
46 Roh S, Choi J Y. Exploring signals for a nuclear future using social big data[J]. Sustainability, 2020, 12(14): 5563.
47 Park C, Cho S. Analysis on trends and future signs of smart grids[J]. International Journal of Smart Grid and Clean Energy, 2020, 9(3): 533-543.
48 Bouktaib A, Fennan A. A framework for weak signal detection in competitive intelligence using semantic clustering algorithms[J]. International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications, 2021, 12(12): 555-565.
49 Kim S, Kim Y E, Bae K J, et al. NEST: a quantitative model for detecting emerging trends using a global monitoring expert network and Bayesian network[J]. Futures, 2013, 52: 59-73.
50 Krigsholm P, Riekkinen K. Applying text mining for identifying future signals of land administration[J]. Land, 2019, 8(12): 181.
51 翟东升, 夏军, 张杰, 等. 基于专利新兴技术弱信号识别方法研究[J]. 情报杂志, 2015, 34(8): 31-36.
52 王康, 陈悦, 宋超, 等. 颠覆性技术: 概念辨析与特征分析[J]. 科学学研究, 2022, 40(11): 1937-1946.
53 刘亚辉, 许海云. 突破性创新早期识别与弱信号分析综述[J]. 图书情报工作, 2021, 65(4): 89-101.
54 Koivisto R, Kulmala I, Gotcheva N. Weak signals and damage scenarios—Systematics to identify weak signals and their sources related to mass transport attacks[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2016, 104: 180-190.
55 El Akrouchi M, Benbrahim H, Kassou I. End-to-end LDA-based automatic weak signal detection in web news[J]. Knowledge-Based Systems, 2021, 212: 106650.
56 El Akrouchi M, Benbrahim H, Kassou I. Monitoring early warning signs evolution through time[C]// Proceedings of the 2020 3rd International Conference on Algorithms, Computing and Artificial Intelligence. New York: ACM Press, 2020: Article No.41.
57 Kwon L N, Park J H, Moon Y H, et al. Weak signal detecting of industry convergence using information of products and services of global listed companies - focusing on growth engine industry in South Korea[J]. Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity, 2018, 4(1): 10.
58 Yu M X, Pasman H, Erraguntla M, et al. A framework to identify and respond to weak signals of disastrous process incidents based on FRAM and machine learning techniques[J]. Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2022, 158: 98-114.
59 Edo-Osagie O, Smith G, Lake I, et al. Twitter mining using semi-supervised classification for relevance filtering in syndromic surveillance[J]. PLoS One, 2019, 14(7): e0210689.
60 苗红, 郭鑫, 吴菲菲. 产业融合弱信号识别研究——以老年智能家居领域为例[J]. 情报杂志, 2020, 39(11): 54-60, 89.
61 Miao H, Guo X, Yuan F. Research on identification of potential directions of artificial intelligence industry from the perspective of weak signal[J/OL]. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, (2021-12-01). https://doi.org/10.1109/TEM.2021.3123639. |
|
|
|
