基于技术预见视角的弱信号识别研究综述

doi:10.3772/j.issn.1000-0135.2025.10.010

情报学报

2025, Vol. 44

Issue (10): 1342-1358 DOI: 10.3772/j.issn.1000-0135.2025.10.010

情报综述与述评

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基于技术预见视角的弱信号识别研究综述

曹海艳^1,2, 王暖臣², 穆歌², 李婉红¹

1.哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院，哈尔滨 150001
2.中国人民解放军军事科学院系统工程研究院，北京 100141

Review of Weak Signal Identification Based on Technology Foresight Perspective

Cao Haiyan^1,2, Wang Nuanchen², Mu Ge², Li Wanhong¹

1.School of Economic and Management, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001
2.Systems Engineering Institute, Academy of Military Science, Beijing 100141

摘要
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参考文献
相关文章 (5)

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摘要弱信号作为发现未来技术机会的早期信号以及减少创新风险的重要手段，对把握战略主动权具有重要价值。然而，当前学术界关于弱信号识别的研究成果相对分散，尤其是基于技术预见视角的弱信号识别存在研究领域交叠、知识碎片化等问题，对于预测技术发展趋势缺乏有效支撑。本文通过系统性文献梳理，结合关键词聚类结果和弱信号识别过程，构建了涵盖“动向监测层-信号认知层-价值建构层”的三层研究框架，对动向监测层的弱信号识别主题、识别领域和识别数据进行剖析，对信号认知层的弱信号识别特征和识别方法进行解构，对价值建构层的弱信号识别结果表示、验证和解读进行梳理。最后，整合三层研究成果，建构基于技术预见视角的弱信号识别整体框架，以期通过厘清技术预见视角下的弱信号识别研究工作，为挖掘未来技术机会、推进新兴产业发展提供理论参考与实践借鉴。

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	曹海艳
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关键词 ：弱信号识别, 技术预见, 三层框架, 文献综述

收稿日期: 2025-02-17

基金资助:国家社会科学基金重点项目“数智赋能高耗能制造业减污降碳协同治理研究”（23AGL031）。

作者简介: 曹海艳，1991年生，博士研究生，主要研究方向为技术管理与技术创新、数据挖掘；王暖臣，1972年生，研究员，博士生导师，主要研究方向为体系工程、体系架构及其标准化；穆歌，1977年生，研究员，博士生导师，主要研究方向为体系工程、体系架构及其标准化；李婉红，通信作者，1978年生，教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为数字化转型、技术创新，E-mail：liwanhong@hrbeu.edu.cn；

引用本文:

曹海艳, 王暖臣, 穆歌, 李婉红. 基于技术预见视角的弱信号识别研究综述[J]. 情报学报, 2025, 44(10): 1342-1358.
Cao Haiyan, Wang Nuanchen, Mu Ge, Li Wanhong. Review of Weak Signal Identification Based on Technology Foresight Perspective. 情报学报, 2025, 44(10): 1342-1358.

链接本文:

https://qbxb.istic.ac.cn/CN/10.3772/j.issn.1000-0135.2025.10.010 或 https://qbxb.istic.ac.cn/CN/Y2025/V44/I10/1342

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