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| Potential Disruptive Technology Assessment Method Based on Implicit Knowledge |
| Liu Zhihui, Zhang Junsheng, Lin Yi, Niu Beibei, Wang Lijun |
| Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China, Beijing 100038 |
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Abstract Bringing together the wisdom of experts and the public, i.e., implicit knowledge, for potential disruptive technology assessment is the trend in disruptive technology prediction. Generally, the accuracy of experts' predictions of disruptive technology is high, but there is also a risk of inaccurate or omitted predictions due to experts' cognitive bias and thinking set. Public participation in prediction helps to increase the diversity and novelty of disruptive prediction technology, and also helps to strengthen the comprehensiveness of prediction results. To gather the wisdom of experts and the public for predicting potential disruptive technologies, this paper studies the improvement of the method and mechanism of the prediction market for disruptive technology prediction, introduces the design and R&D results of the potential disruptive technology evaluation support system that gathers the wisdom of experts and the public, and puts forward suggestions for future work.
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Received: 05 November 2021
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