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| Emotion Diffusion, Information Cascades, and Internet Opinion Deviation: A Dynamic Analysis Based on Emergency Events Panel Data from 2015 to 2020 |
| Yang Changzheng |
| School of Journalism & New Media, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049 |
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Abstract To determine the influence mechanism of Internet opinion deviation, this paper explores the related ideas of Internet opinion deviation. The paper uses China's emergency events panel data from 2015 to 2020 and the vector autoregressive (VAR) model, panel data model, and state-space model to analyze the relationship between emotion diffusion, information cascade, and Internet opinion deviation. The research results are as follows. First, the impact of emotion diffusion and information cascade on the bias of public opinion is significant, and the impact of emotion diffusion is greater than that of the information cascade. Emotion diffusion and the autocorrelation effect of the information cascade have a positive impact on the information cascade, and the autocorrelation lag effect of emotion diffusion and the information cascade have a significant impact on emotion diffusion. Second, the marginal effect of emotion diffusion on public opinion bias is significantly greater than that of the information cascade, that of emotion diffusion on information cascade is greater than that of the public opinion bias, and that of information cascade on emotional diffusion is greater than that of the public opinion bias. Third, the contribution rate of emotion diffusion to the fluctuation of public opinion bias is greater than that of the information cascade, and that of emotion diffusion to the fluctuation of information cascade is greater than that of the public opinion deviation. Finally, the interaction effects of emotion diffusion, information cascade, and public opinion bias vary in different demographic groups. Conclusions of the study show that it is possible to formulate related driving strategies and specific measures.
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Received: 12 April 2020
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