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| Theoretical Research on the Weak Signal Analysis of Disruptive Technology Based on System Thinking |
| Tang Hulin, Su Cheng, Li Wangyu |
| Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China, Beijing 100038 |
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Abstract With the rapid advancement of scientific and technological revolution as well as industrial transformation, the accelerated emergence of disruptive technologies has become a general trend. The weak signals of disruptive technologies are characterized by fragmentation, ambiguity, and various forms of manifestation, posing significant challenges to understanding, analyzing, and utilizing them. Systems thinking provides a comprehensive and holistic perspective, offering the possibility of conducting an in-depth exploration of the nature and laws of the weak signal of disruptive technologies. Based on the concept of systems thinking, this study conducts a theoretical investigation of the weak signal of disruptive technologies and proposes a model for the early-stage development of disruptive technologies. The theoretical model suggests that disruptive technologies are developed in the closed-loop of technological development in the innovation chain, in which the proof-of-concept is extended in the internal elements of the development system of disruptive technologies; the effects of innovations such as methodology and technology are revealed in the proof-of-concept, the value of the technology is verified, and important signals are released to the external environmental elements; in the process of detecting weak signals, the focus should be on indicating weak signals with groundbreaking innovations. The model provides theoretical support for the early identification of disruptive technologies based on weak signals.
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Received: 07 July 2024
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