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| Early Identification Strategies for Disruptive Technologies through the Lens of Technology Life Cycle |
| Hou Yanhui, Chen Rong, Wang Jiakun |
| College of Economics and Management, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590 |
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Abstract This study proposes a method for the early identification of disruptive technologies that considers the technology life cycle stages and feature heterogeneity. It addresses the problem of ignoring technology evolution features in the current disruptive technology identification process. First, Sentence-BERT (sentence bidirectional encoder representation from transformers) is used to vectorize patent abstracts. Second, a filtering identification system is constructed: the first layer employs the local outlier factor with constraint integration (LOCI) anomaly detection algorithm to identify and classify outlier patents; the second layer uses an S-curve life cycle identification to filter patents in the maturity stage; the third layer measures the innovativeness of patents in the budding stage; and the fourth layer evaluates the disruptive nature of the patent text and technology reporting data in the growth stage to finalize the filtering process. Finally, the field of quantum information technology is used as a case study to illustrate this method. The study identifies three disruptive themes in the germination and growth stages, which align with the authoritative reports, verifying the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.
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Received: 04 June 2024
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