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| Research on Scenario Evolution of Food Safety Incidents Based on Knowledge Element and Bayesian Network |
| Song Yinghua1,2,3, Liu Hanxiao1,2,3, Jiang Xinyu1,2,3, Yang Lijiao1,2,3 |
1. School of Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070;
2. China Research Center for Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070;
3. Hubei Collaboration Innovation Center for Early Warning and Emergency Response Technology, Wuhan 430070 |
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Abstract The scenario evolution of food safety incidents has the characteristics of unclear path, complex developments, and various subjects. Therefore, it is difficult for decision makers to effectively respond during emergency rescue operations. In the current study, a knowledge element model was used to understand the composition of food safety incident scenarios, which was subdivided into three components: emergencies, exposure, and emergency management; this was done to explore the evolution mechanism of incident scenarios. In addition, Bayesian network technology was employed to further develop a comprehensive model for scenario evolution and quantify the most likely scenarios while Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory was applied to modify the probabilities. Finally, the efficacy and feasibility of the developed method were demonstrated through the Taiwan Plasticizer Pollution case study. Moreover, by better understanding evolution mechanism, this study helps government agencies improve the efficacy of food safety response and conduct more targeted control measures.
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Received: 26 March 2018
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