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| Technology Opportunity Identification Based on RFM Model and Stochastic Actor-oriented Model |
| Zhang Zhengang1,2,3, Luo Taiye1 |
1.School of Business Administration, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640
2.Guangzhou Digital Innovation Research Center, Guangzhou 510640
3.Science and Technology Revolution and Technology Forecasting Think Tank of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou 510640 |
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Abstract Technology opportunity identification is very significant to the innovation management of R & D organizations. Taking the patent data from 2013 to 2015 in the field of artificial intelligence as an example, this study proposes a novel method to identify technological opportunities. Using the idea of RFM (recency, frequency, monetary) model, we employed the K-means algorithm to cluster knowledge elements based on three indicators (i.e., length of the average occurrence time, frequency of occurrence, and combination capacity) and yielded four knowledge elements that could reflect the direction of technology development in the field. The stochastic actor-oriented model was used to analyze the evolution of knowledge networks, and a formula was proposed to discover new technology opportunities for knowledge elements. Using this formula, we predicted the potential technology opportunities for the four yielded knowledge elements. The validity of the proposed method was tested by using the patent data of 2016-2018 in the field. The robustness of the proposed method was also tested by using the patent data from 2014 to 2018 in the field of 3D printing.
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Received: 04 November 2019
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