虚假信息群体免疫传播阈值测度模型研究

doi:10.3772/j.issn.1000-0135.2025.11.003

情报学报

2025, Vol. 44

Issue (11): 1383-1396 DOI: 10.3772/j.issn.1000-0135.2025.11.003

情报理论与方法

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虚假信息群体免疫传播阈值测度模型研究

曹高辉, 杨仁彪, 李园园, 董焕晴

华中师范大学信息管理学院，武汉 430079

Model for Measuring the Threshold of Herd Immunity Spreading of Misinformation

Cao Gaohui, Yang Renbiao, Li Yuanyuan, Dong Huanqing

School of Information Management, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079

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摘要虚假信息传播误导公众认知，干扰了正常的信息传播秩序，亟须采取有效措施予以遏制。首先，本研究基于预防接种理论构建虚假信息群体免疫传播阈值测度模型，采用建模仿真方法探究虚假信息群体免疫的传播阈值及其稳定性；其次，对阈值区间的模糊性展开分析，并提出线性趋势法和区间倍数法两种预测群体免疫阈值区间的方法；最后，探究模型关键参数对虚假信息群体免疫过程的影响。研究结果表明，虚假信息群体免疫传播阈值是一个具有不同概率分布的区间范围。当免疫者与信谣者人数之比不低于二者感染能力之比的倒数时，能够实现虚假信息群体免疫。两种估算方法均能有效预测虚假信息群体免疫阈值区间，但线性趋势法比区间倍数法更加精准。节点划分标准主要影响传播阈值区间大小，而节点转换规则主要影响传播阈值区间范围。

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	曹高辉
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关键词 ：虚假信息, 群体免疫, 传播阈值测度, 预防接种理论, 建模仿真

收稿日期: 2025-01-15

基金资助:华中师范大学中央高校基本科研业务费项目“大语言模型驱动的半导体产业科技预测及政策引导研究”（CCNU24JC034）；重庆市自然科学基金面上项目“社交平台视域下具有免疫逃逸效应的谣言传播与管控模型研究”（CSTB2023NSCQ-MSX0989）。

作者简介: 曹高辉，1980年生，博士，教授，博士生导师，主要研究领域为知识组织、信息服务、数据治理；杨仁彪，通信作者，1995年生，博士研究生，主要研究领域为虚假信息传播治理，E-mail：1352215052@qq.com；李园园，2001年生，硕士研究生，主要研究领域为信息行为；董焕晴，1995年生，博士研究生，主要研究领域为数字素养与信息行为；

引用本文:

曹高辉, 杨仁彪, 李园园, 董焕晴. 虚假信息群体免疫传播阈值测度模型研究[J]. 情报学报, 2025, 44(11): 1383-1396.
Cao Gaohui, Yang Renbiao, Li Yuanyuan, Dong Huanqing. Model for Measuring the Threshold of Herd Immunity Spreading of Misinformation. 情报学报, 2025, 44(11): 1383-1396.

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https://qbxb.istic.ac.cn/CN/10.3772/j.issn.1000-0135.2025.11.003 或 https://qbxb.istic.ac.cn/CN/Y2025/V44/I11/1383

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